Three months on, the longer shot has become the favourite. Much has changed since July:
- Affordability has become the defining issue of the campaign, with petrol above US$4 a gallon, diesel above US$6, 30-year mortgage rates at 7.4% and US CPI back up to 3.7% in September.
- The Fed hiked 25bps to 3.75–4.00% on 16 September, its first hike since 2023. In July we expected the Fed to hold under new Chair Warsh but energy-driven inflation forced its hand.
- The US 10-year yield broke through 5% for the first time since 2007, pulling long-end yields higher globally.
- Democrats have opened a near nine-point lead on the generic congressional ballot, and prediction markets now favour Democratic control of both chambers.
Our recent Trip Insights: The US (October 2026) covered company level detail and on the ground feedback from management meetings. Here we step back to look at the midterms: where the race stands, what each outcome means for US policy and bond yields, how it spills over globally, and what it means for global listed infrastructure (GLI). In short, the bond market matters more to our asset class than the ballot box.
Where the race stands
Midterms have historically been a referendum on the sitting President: the rare exceptions came when approval was above 60%. President Trump’s approval sits in the mid 30s, among the lowest of any President since 1945. Despite Trump’s State of the Union address, where he promised cheaper petrol and lower mortgage rates – he started the Iran War only four days later – delivering the opposite.